Day 1 :
Keynote Forum
Peter Nigel Cameron
Energy Markets Global Limited, UK
Keynote: Dangers in forecasting: Forecasting and alternatives to the scientific approach
Time : 10:00-11:00
Biography:
Peter Nigel Cameron is the founder and MD of Energy Markets Global Limited, a UK based international energy consultancy and corporate executive training company, advising on the strategic, commercial and regulatory aspects of developing energy markets, working for corporate and public clients worldwide.Peter is a lecturer in business strategy for Middlesex University (UK), oil and gas MBA. He has published two books on energy, 15 articles and presented at numerous international conferences. Peter has an MBA and a BA Hons.
Abstract:
The oil and gas industry is amazingly unable to predict oil prices. What is probably the largest industry in the world, with the biggest companies and corporations in the world, employing large large numbers (thousands) of bright people at high salaries and using large sophisticated and complex computing power, yet they fail to forecast the price of their one product (crude oil). Not only the oil industry but many other industries throughout society and history consistenly fail to forecast correctly. Forecasts are driven by historic data and trends and are based on a scientific big data analytical approach. This paper argues that in the fast changing dynamic modern world, such an approach misses emerging trends, patterns, break points and game changers. It loses the space for the unexpected and for blue sky thinking. The paper considers some examples of forecasts in the energy sector and it asks questions about how future energy use may really develop. The paper then considers some wider questions about how the past drives the future. In a data driven world, to really understand the future, non data driven approaches are needed. The ideas in this paper are developed and expanded from a presentation which Mr Cameron gave to a G20-Y conference at Évian-les-Bains in France in 2017.
Keynote Forum
Steyn Heckroodt
University of Modern Sciences UAE
Keynote: Incorporating environmental sustainability targets into the organisational competitive business model of the 21st century
Time : 11:30-12:30
Biography:
Steyn Heckroodt has completed his PhD from University of Stellenbosch Business School, South Africa. He is currently the Dean of Academic Affairs at Jumeira University in Dubai and practicing Harvard Business School Publishing Moderator in the Mena region. He has many publications and has attended many conferences. He contributed largely to the breakthrough in providing businesses with an enhanced scanning framework with a systems thinking approach, enabling businesses to maintain their competitiveness amidst the larger environmental challenges presented in
Abstract:
Ever since the introduction of business environmental scanning frameworks in the late 1970s and early 1980s, business leader’s entrained thinking was sculpted by their ability to apply a scanning framework based on analytical thinking, primarily. These frameworks were largely based on the basis of breaking things into smaller manageable bits. An example that comes to mind is that of the PESTLE framework is framework taught strategists and scenario planners to view the business environment through the flters of politics, economy, social trends, technology, legislation and environment (green), as silo components of the larger business environment. is method consisted largely of listing the features of each component without considering the interdependence, interconnectedness and interrelatedness between these components, an oversight that largely led to an incomplete representation of the complete and whole business environment. Fast forward to 2018 and we are confronted with environmental challenges of mammoth proportion, largely due the pursuit of business competitiveness at the cost of the environment. To address the global environmental sustainability challenges facing humanity today, business leaders need to fundamentally change the way they view, scan and analyze the environment. For this to happen, we need to fundamentally change our thought paradigm about the environment within which we operate and conduct business. is paper aims to introduce such a reframed framework through which businesses can scan the environment systemically, as opposed to merely analytically, leading to a more complete representation of the environment and enabling competitive sustainability and environmental sustainability to co-exist.
- Global Warming-and-It�s-Effects| Impact of Climate Changes| Effective Adaption| Climate Change and the Science behind It| Climate Change Correlation with Medical Entomology| Water Bodies and Climate Changes| Pollution and Climate Changes| Resources Mitigation| Climate Changes Law and Policy| Energy policy
Location: Dubai, UAE
Session Introduction
Raeesa Moolla
University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa
Title: An occupational health risk assessment for exposure to BTEX: A case study of informal traders in a Metro Centre (Taxi Rank) in South Africa
Time : 15:00-15:30
Biography:
Raeesa Moolla attained her PhD at the age of 30, at the University of the Witwatersrand, where she is now a tenured lecturer. Her research interests lie in hotspot monitoring and modelling of urban-scale air pollution and its impacts on human health; specifically related to VOC emissions and pollution from the transport sectors. She is also involved in surface and tropospheric ozone research; and is currently participating in the IGAC-led TOAR project. Dr Moolla currently has over 25 publications and conference proceedings to her name, with an additional five publications being reviewed by recognized peer-reviewed journals.
Abstract:
Many South African commuters use minibus taxis daily and are connected to the informal transport network through metro centres informally known as ‘taxi ranks’. A taxi rank forms part of an economic nexus for many informal traders, where they work alone in designated areas along the periphery of the taxi rank. Consequently, informal traders are at potential risk of adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of exhaust fumes from the taxis. Of particular concern is a group of hazardous volatile organic compounds, known as BTEX (viz. benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes). The BTEX compounds are known to have a high level of toxicity, both in acute and chronic exposure situations. Thus, an occupational health risk assessment for informal traders exposed to BTEX compounds was investigated. The health risk assessment included a questionnaire and three active sampling campaigns. The sampling campaigns were conducted using the synspec spectras gas chromatography 955 instrument. Results indicated that the average ambient concentrations were 8.46 ppb, 0.63 ppb, 1.27 ppb and 1.0 ppb for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes respectively; which were above acceptable South African Air. Quality Standards (i.e. 8-hour-running-average). The daily variation of BTEX compounds also indicated increased benzene and xylene concentrations when ambient temperatures increased, a concern with future climate fluctuations. The average cancer risk calculated for the informal traders was 9.46 x 10-3. Although this was an acceptable cancer risk, in a number of individual cases, there were incidences of unacceptable risk to the cumulative exposure of BTEXtotal.
Tatiana Ananina
Federal State Establishment, Russia
Title: The climatic response of ground beetles (Carabidae, Coleoptera) in the Northern Baikal (Barguzin State Nature Reserve)
Time : 16:00-16:30
Biography:
Tatiana Ananina graduated from Tomsk State University in 1980, Chair of Zoology of Vertebrates. 1980-1982 - Researcher at the Tomsk University Zoological Museum. 1982- 1987 - Senior Engineer of the Monitoring Station in Barguzinsky Reserve. Since 1988 she has been senior researcher, entomologist in State Nature Barguzinsky reserve. In 1999 she defended the thesis “Ground beetles of barguzin ridge”at the Candidate of Biological Sciences. He has published more than 200 papers in the journals, participated in 45 scientific conferences. She took part in expedition work in the southern and northern part of Lake Baikal.
Abstract:
Climate variability is a regulator of natural systems. The analysis of the climate in the Barguzinsky. Reserve for the period 1955-2015 was carried out. A stable positive trend of the average annual air temperature and the length of the frost-free period with a stable level of atmospheric precipitation noted. Temperatures of air at the end of winter, in spring, summer and autumn months have grown. The arrival of winter became later, and the onset of spring was early. Snow cover is ahead of the average long-term date. To understand the adaptive capacity of ecosystems to climate change, there is a need for a quantitative analysis of the flora and fauna indicator species reactivity. The quantitative calculations of ground beetles in the Barguzin. Range high-altitude transect in 1988-2015 were carried out. The statistical method Poisson regression on the logarithmic scale "meteorological factors-the number of ground beetles" is applied. The interaction of calculated group indices is considered: the sum of the active air temperatures; the level of summer and winter precipitation, the duration of the frost-free period; longitude of snow cover, the Rubtsov hydrothermal coefficient, the final occurrence of maximum temperatures above 10° C (spring), the stable transition of minimum temperatures above 5° C (summer) and the decisive transition of minimum temperatures below 0° C (autumn), the establishment of a snow cover. The Poisson regression analysis made it possible to quantify the communications "meteorological factors-the ground beetles number" to compile an ecological scale characterizing the tolerance of ground beetles to environmental factors.
Engila Mishra Maharjan
Climate Change Specialist at ASHA Project, Nepal
Title: Adaptive and interactive climate future: By integrating scientific information with local perceptions
Time : 16:30-17:00
Biography:
Engila Mishra Maharjan has completed her Master of Science in Natural Resource Management from Pokhara University, Nepal and has completed her second master of Science in Sustainable Energy System and Management from Flensburg University. She has worked in the field of environment, energy and climate change more than 12 years in South East Asia region and has published more than 10 papers in reputed journals.
Abstract:
Climate change is already having adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities through higher temperatures, prolonged droughts and more frequent extremes. However, a gap remains between public understanding, scientific knowledge about climate change and effective adaptation options identification and implementation. Adaptation to the climate change cannot effectively occur unless the planning process adopts an ecosystem-based approach. The livelihoods of smallholder farmers/community depend on natural systems that extend beyond administrative boundaries. Therefore, to enhance the climate resilience of natural environment and to sustain ecosystem services needs to consider the environment at a larger ecosystem level in Adaptation for Smallholders in Hilly Areas (ASHA) Project. This poster highlights the novel approaches for covering natural boundary of climate change adaptation plan by adopting the enhanced approaches for climate change adaptation planning and implementation which integrates scientific information with local perceptions and also it contributes to fulfill the gaps. These approaches are Geographic Information System (GIS) based sub-watershed and Participatory Scenario. Development (PSD). Since, GIS based sub watershed assessment is necessary in order to support for ecosystem level resilience building by addressing upstream and downstream linkages whereas PSD is necessary for envisioning future for balancing both development and ecosystem needs. Therefore, this assessment process provides communities with the opportunity to interactively explore different climate futures, builds capability and capacity for dealing with complex challenges and socializes
adaptation priorities with diverse publics. Furthermore, it enhances learning effects for resilient climate futures.
- Workshop
Location: Dubai, UAE
Session Introduction
Raeesa Moolla
University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa
Title: Climate change and the effect on health conditions in developing countries
Time : 13:30-15:00
Biography:
Raeesa Moolla attained her PhD at the age of 30, at the University of the Witwatersrand, where she is now a tenured lecturer. Her research interests lie in hotspot monitoring and modelling of urban-scale air pollution and its impacts on human health; specifically related to VOC emissions and pollution from the transport sectors. She is also involved in surface and tropospheric ozone research; and is currently participating in the IGAC-led TOAR project. Dr Moolla currently has over 25 publications and conference proceedings to her name, with an additional five publications being reviewed by recognized peer-reviewed journals