Climate Change and Medical Entomology

The oil and gas industry is amazingly unable to predict oil prices. What is probably the largest industry in the world, with the biggest companies and corporations in the world, employing large large numbers (thousands) of bright people at high salaries and using large sophisticated and complex computing power, yet they fail to forecast the price of their one product (crude oil). Not only the oil industry but many other industries throughout society and history consistenly fail to forecast correctly. Forecasts are driven by historic data and trends and are based on a scientific big data analytical approach. This paper argues that in the fast changing dynamic modern world, such an approach misses emerging trends, patterns, break points and game changers. It loses the space for the unexpected and for blue sky thinking. The paper considers some examples of forecasts in the energy sector and it asks questions about how future energy use may really develop. The paper then considers some wider questions about how the past drives the future. In a data driven world, to really understand the future, non data driven approaches are needed. The ideas in this paper are developed and expanded from a presentation which Mr Cameron gave to a G20-Y conference at Évian-les-Bains in France in 2017.